WFP Warns Middle East Conflict Is Driving Millions Toward Hunger

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is creating far-reaching humanitarian consequences, with millions of vulnerable people across developing nations facing an increased risk of hunger and food insecurity.

According to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), rising fuel costs, disrupted trade routes, and severe funding shortages are making it increasingly difficult to deliver food assistance to those who need it most.

The crisis has highlighted the interconnected nature of the global economy, where geopolitical tensions can rapidly affect food availability, transportation costs, and humanitarian operations across continents. Experts warn that if current disruptions continue, millions more people could fall into acute food insecurity in the coming months.

Regional Conflict Creates Global Economic Ripple Effects

Impact of U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran

The humanitarian concerns intensified after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in February triggered a wider regional conflict stretching across the Gulf region and into Lebanon. The conflict has disrupted major shipping routes, including the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage through which a significant share of global oil and gas supplies travels.

As shipping companies reroute vessels to avoid conflict zones, transportation costs have increased substantially. These disruptions have created bottlenecks in global supply chains and contributed to higher energy prices worldwide.

Oil Prices Driving Food Inflation

In March, the WFP projected that as many as 45 million people could face acute food insecurity if oil prices remained around $100 per barrel through June. The agency now says that this scenario is becoming a reality, with benchmark crude oil prices staying above that level since early March.

Higher fuel prices affect every stage of the food supply chain—from agricultural production and transportation to storage and distribution. As a result, food prices are rising sharply in many developing economies, placing additional strain on households already struggling with poverty.

Vulnerable Countries Face the Greatest Risk

Afghanistan's Food Security Situation

Afghanistan remains among the countries most vulnerable to the ongoing crisis. According to the WFP, 17.4 million people in Afghanistan could experience food insecurity in 2026. The country's dependence on imported fuel and food has made it particularly susceptible to rising global prices and disrupted supply chains.

Somalia Faces Severe Hunger Threat

Somalia is confronting an equally alarming situation. The WFP estimates that 6.5 million people, approximately one-third of the country's population, are expected to face severe hunger during 2026.

Risk of Further Deterioration

The agency warns that if current disruptions continue, an additional 2.5 million Somalis and 2.3 million Afghans could fall into food insecurity. This would significantly worsen already fragile humanitarian conditions in both nations.

Aid Agencies Struggle with Funding and Supply Challenges

Growing Funding Gap

The Middle East conflict is unfolding at a time when humanitarian agencies are already dealing with substantial funding shortages. The WFP has indicated that it expects to reach 1.5 million fewer people globally in 2026 due to resource constraints.

If the current crisis continues for six months, the number of people unable to receive assistance could increase to 9 million.

Child Nutrition Programmes Under Threat

One of the most concerning developments involves child nutrition programmes in Somalia. The WFP reports that supplies of nutritious food for children under five suffering from moderate malnutrition could be exhausted as early as July.

The situation is particularly severe because the organization is facing an 89% funding gap in Somalia.

Speaking about the crisis, Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, said, “We are running out of food. The food is not available for distribution, and the ones who will experience the impact of this are going to be very vulnerable children.”

Supply Chain Disruptions Hampering Humanitarian Efforts

Shipping Challenges in the Indian Ocean

Humanitarian operations are also being affected by significant logistical obstacles. Shipping disruptions across the Indian Ocean have reduced the number of vessels stopping in Somalia, making it harder to deliver essential supplies.

Additionally, some WFP food stocks have been delayed at Salalah Port in Oman, causing critical interruptions in aid distribution schedules.

Rising Operational Costs

The conflict has also pushed up aviation fuel prices, increasing costs for the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service (UNHAS). This service often provides the only safe transportation link to remote and conflict-affected areas.

In Afghanistan, the situation is especially challenging. The WFP reports that aid transportation costs have increased by as much as fivefold, while delivery times have expanded from approximately 10 days to as many as 75 days because trucks are being forced to use alternative routes.

Global Food Security Faces New Pressures

Broader Implications for Developing Nations

The current crisis demonstrates how geopolitical conflicts can rapidly evolve into humanitarian emergencies. Rising energy costs, disrupted trade corridors, and reduced aid funding are creating a perfect storm for countries that rely heavily on imports and international assistance.

Food security experts warn that without coordinated international action, vulnerable populations across Asia, Africa, and other developing regions may continue to face worsening hunger conditions.

Need for International Cooperation

The WFP and other humanitarian organizations continue to call for increased funding, improved access to critical shipping routes, and international cooperation to stabilize food and energy markets. Such measures will be essential to prevent millions more people from slipping into severe food insecurity.

Conclusion

The warning issued by the World Food Programme highlights the far-reaching consequences of the ongoing Middle East conflict. What began as a regional geopolitical crisis has evolved into a global food security challenge, affecting millions of vulnerable people in countries such as Afghanistan and Somalia. Rising oil prices, disrupted supply chains, and shrinking humanitarian funding are creating unprecedented pressure on food assistance programmes and household budgets alike.

With 45 million people potentially facing acute food insecurity, urgent international action is needed to address both the humanitarian and economic dimensions of the crisis. Ensuring stable energy markets, maintaining aid funding, and protecting critical supply routes will be crucial to preventing a deeper global hunger emergency in the months ahead.