India has zero probability of slipping into recession, says survey

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India has zero probability of slipping into recession, says survey
26 Jul 2022
min read

News Synopsis

According to the most recent Bloomberg survey of economists, the risk of recession is increasing in a few Asian economies as higher prices encourage central banks to quicken the pace at which they raise interest rates.

The likelihood of Sri Lanka entering a recession in the coming year has increased from 33 percent to 85%, by far the highest increase in the region. Sri Lanka is currently experiencing its worst economic crisis ever. The likelihood that New Zealand, Taiwan, Australia, and the Philippines will experience a recession has also increased, according to economists, to 33 percent, 20 percent, 20 percent, and 8 percent, respectively. To combat inflation, those countries' central banks have been raising interest rates.

For a number of other Asian economies, the survey found no change in the likelihood of a recession. According to economists, there is a 20% chance that China will experience a recession, and a 25% chance that South Korea or Japan will also experience one.

Comparatively to those of Europe and the United States, Asian economies have largely remained robust.

According to Steven Cochrane, chief Asia Pacific economist at Moody's Analytics Inc., countries like Germany and France have been the hardest hit by rising energy prices, with a ripple effect affecting the rest of that region as well. According to him, the likelihood of a recession in Asia is typically between 20 and 25 percent, while that of the US and Europe is between 40 and 55 percent.

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