World Inequality Lab Predicts India Could Surpass China in Global GDP Share by 2060

India's growing economic influence could transform the global economic landscape over the coming decades. According to a recent study by the World Inequality Lab, India may surpass China in terms of its share of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measured using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) by around 2060.

The findings were highlighted in the report titled "Global Justice Report: A Plan for Equality and Prosperity With Planetary Boundaries." The study suggests that demographic trends, economic growth patterns, and shifting global dynamics could significantly alter the balance of economic power during the second half of the 21st century.

World Inequality Lab's report presents a future in which India emerges as one of the most influential economic forces in the world while China experiences a gradual slowdown in its share of global output.

Understanding China's Current Economic Position

China Remains the Largest Economy in PPP Terms

China currently contributes approximately 20 percent of global GDP when measured using purchasing power parity. According to the report, this makes China's economy roughly one-third larger than that of the United States under the PPP methodology.

Researchers project that China's share of global GDP could continue expanding over the next decade, potentially becoming nearly twice that of the United States by 2035.

However, despite this strong economic position, demographic changes are expected to create significant challenges for long-term growth.

Population Decline Emerging as a Major Challenge

One of the key factors influencing China's future economic outlook is its declining population share.

The report notes that China's share of the global population has fallen significantly over time:

• 23 percent in 1945.
• Around 17 percent in 2025.
• Expected to fall below 8 percent by 2100.

Why Demographics Matter

A shrinking population can reduce the size of the workforce, limit domestic consumption, and increase pressure on social welfare systems. These factors may gradually slow economic expansion despite continued technological and industrial development.

As a result, the report suggests that China's share of global GDP is likely to stabilize and eventually decline during the latter half of the century.

India's Expanding Economic Potential

India Positioned for Long-Term Growth

India's demographic profile differs significantly from China's. The country continues to have one of the world's youngest populations, providing a large labor force and expanding consumer market.

The World Inequality Lab projects that these advantages could allow India to steadily increase its share of global GDP and eventually overtake China around 2060.

India has already emerged as one of the world's fastest-growing major economies. Strong domestic demand, rapid digitalization, infrastructure investments, manufacturing expansion, and government-led reforms are helping support long-term growth prospects.

Growing Global Confidence in India

Global institutions have increasingly highlighted India's economic potential. The country's expanding technology sector, startup ecosystem, renewable energy investments, and manufacturing initiatives are attracting significant domestic and international investment.

As supply chains diversify globally, India is also benefiting from efforts by multinational corporations to establish alternative production and sourcing hubs.

A More Multipolar Global Economy

No Single Nation Likely to Dominate

The report argues that China is unlikely to achieve the level of global economic dominance once enjoyed by the United States during the mid-20th century or by Europe in the early 1900s.

At their respective peaks:

• The United States accounted for approximately 35–45 percent of global output.
• Europe also represented around 35–45 percent of world economic production.

China's projected future share remains below these historical highs.

As a result, researchers believe the world economy will increasingly become multipolar, with economic power distributed among several major nations rather than concentrated in a single dominant country.

Emerging Economic Centers

Countries such as India, China, the United States, and several other developing economies are expected to play increasingly important roles in shaping global trade, investment flows, technological innovation, and economic governance.

This shift could create a more balanced international economic structure over the coming decades.

India and China: Different Development Paths

Productivity and Inequality Remain Key Factors

The study also highlights important differences between India and China.

While India has demonstrated strong economic momentum, researchers note that inequality levels remain higher than in China. Additionally, China's productivity growth has historically outpaced India's.

The report suggests that China's extensive investments in education, skills development, infrastructure, and human capital have played a major role in boosting productivity and supporting long-term economic growth.

For India to fully realize its projected economic potential, continued investments in education, healthcare, workforce development, and innovation will be essential.

Understanding Purchasing Power Parity

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is a widely used economic measure that adjusts GDP calculations to account for differences in the cost of goods and services between countries.

Rather than relying solely on currency exchange rates, PPP provides a more accurate comparison of what people can actually purchase within their domestic economies.

India's Near-Term Economic Outlook

According to the latest World Economic Outlook projections:

• India's GDP is expected to reach approximately USD 4.15 trillion in 2026.
• India's GDP stood at USD 3.92 trillion in 2025.
• The United States economy is projected at USD 32.38 trillion in 2026.
• China's economy is expected to reach USD 20.85 trillion in 2026.

These figures underline India's rapid growth trajectory even as the country's economy remains smaller than those of the United States and China in nominal terms.

Conclusion

The World Inequality Lab's projections point toward a significant transformation in the global economic order over the coming decades. While China is expected to remain a major economic power, demographic challenges could gradually reduce its share of global output after reaching its peak.

At the same time, India's large population, expanding workforce, growing domestic market, and sustained economic reforms could enable it to overtake China in global GDP share measured by purchasing power parity around 2060. The findings also reinforce the likelihood of a more multipolar world economy, where economic influence is shared among several major nations rather than dominated by a single global power.