Mukesh Ambani Suffers Biggest Loss in 5 Years as Reliance Shares Slide, ₹2.66 Lakh Crore Wiped Out in 3 Weeks

Asia’s richest businessman Mukesh Ambani has faced his biggest wealth erosion in five years as Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) shares plunged sharply in January. A sustained sell-off has dragged the stock to a five-year low, wiping out ₹2.66 lakh crore ($29 billion) from the company’s market capitalisation in just three weeks.

Reliance Shares Hit Five-Year Low

Although Reliance Industries’ shares recovered partially in the second half of Wednesday’s trading session, the stock had declined 1.50% during the day, touching its lowest level in five years.

In January alone, the stock has fallen over 12.50%, marking one of its weakest monthly performances in recent years.

Biggest Monthly Fall in Over a Decade

Worst Start to the Year in 15 Years

According to reports, Reliance Industries is headed for its worst start to a calendar year since 2011. Despite the announcement of its Q3 results last Friday, there was no meaningful recovery in the share price.

As per Bloomberg data, the stock’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a key momentum indicator — dropped to 24, signalling an extremely oversold condition.

Why Are Reliance Shares Falling?

Pressure on Retail and O2C Margins

Market experts attribute the sharp decline to concerns over:

• Weakness in the retail business

• Reduced Russian crude oil imports

• Potential pressure on Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) margins

Analysts noted that aggressive store expansion, sluggish demand in fashion and lifestyle segments, and the impact of the new labour codes have weighed heavily on the retail business.

Brokerage Estimates and Target Prices

Analysts Remain Largely Positive

Out of 28 brokerage firms tracking Reliance Industries:

• The average target price stands at ₹1,717, indicating an upside of over 23% from current levels

• 11 analysts have set a target price of ₹1,750 or higher

• 7 brokerages see the stock crossing ₹1,800

• 26 out of 28 firms have recommended a Buy or Add rating

Jio IPO and New Energy Seen as Key Triggers

Analysts believe upcoming factors such as:

• Jio’s proposed IPO

• Possible tariff hikes

• Development of the new energy ecosystem

• Gradual improvement in the retail business

could act as medium-term growth drivers for the stock.

Margins Under Continued Pressure

HSBC View

HSBC said it remains positive on the retail recovery story and highlighted that Jio continues to grow and is preparing for value unlocking through its IPO.

However, the brokerage cautioned that while demand in the O2C business is showing gradual improvement, a return to earlier high margins remains uncertain. HSBC added that the new energy segment could emerge as a long-term growth engine once fully developed.

Kotak Equities’ Caution on Crude Oil Costs

Kotak Equities warned that as costlier crude oil replaces discounted Russian crude, challenges for the O2C segment may persist.

The brokerage said its Gross Refining Margin (GRM) estimates remain conservative, as declining Russian crude imports could increase raw material costs compared to benchmarks like Dubai crude, impacting profitability.

How Much Has the Stock Fallen in 3 Weeks?

• 31 December 2025: ₹1,569.40

• 21 January 2026 (intra-day): ₹1,373

• Total decline: 12.51%

By 3:10 PM, the stock recovered slightly and was trading 0.83% higher at ₹1,404.95.

₹2.66 Lakh Crore Market Cap Erosion

Due to the January sell-off:

• Reliance’s market capitalisation fell below ₹19 lakh crore during intra-day trade

• Market cap on last trading day of 2025: ₹21,22,655.42 crore

• Market cap on 21 January 2026: ₹18,57,019.17 crore

This translates to a total erosion of ₹2,65,636.25 crore in just three weeks.