IMD Predicts Weak Monsoon in 2026, Rainfall Likely Below Normal

India may witness a weaker-than-usual monsoon in 2026, according to the latest long-range forecast released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The southwest monsoon, which plays a critical role in the country’s agriculture, water supply, and overall economy, is expected to deliver rainfall below normal levels this year.

IMD’s Long-Range Forecast Signals Weak Monsoon

Rainfall Likely Below Long-Term Average

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the total seasonal rainfall during the southwest monsoon period (June to September) is likely to remain below normal. Specifically, rainfall is projected to be around 95–90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

According to the official estimate, the seasonal rainfall across the country is expected to be about 92 per cent of the LPA, with a model margin of error of plus-minus 5 per cent. This projection places the monsoon in the “below normal” category, raising concerns for sectors heavily dependent on rainfall.

Understanding the Long Period Average (LPA)

The LPA is a benchmark used to assess monsoon performance. It is calculated based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, and stands at 87 cm for India as a whole. Any significant deviation from this average can have wide-ranging impacts on agriculture and water resources.

The IMD also noted that it will release an updated monsoon forecast in the last week of May, which will provide further clarity on regional distribution and intensity.

Changing Ocean Conditions Influence Monsoon

Transition from La Niña to Neutral Conditions

The IMD highlighted evolving sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Pacific Ocean, which are key drivers of India’s monsoon. “Atmospheric circulation features across the tropical Pacific remain consistent with weak La Nina–like conditions. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the development of El Nino conditions during the SW Monsoon season,” it said.

Currently, weak La Niña–like conditions are transitioning towards ENSO-neutral conditions. This shift is significant, as neutral phases often precede the development of El Niño, which is typically associated with weaker monsoon rains in India.

El Niño and La Niña Explained

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon that affects global weather patterns.

• El Niño (warm phase): Characterised by weaker trade winds and warmer ocean waters, often leading to drought conditions in parts of Asia, including India, and wetter weather in regions like the United States.
• La Niña (cool phase): Associated with stronger trade winds and cooler ocean temperatures, generally bringing enhanced rainfall to the Indian subcontinent.

The potential emergence of El Niño conditions during the monsoon season is a key factor behind the IMD’s subdued rainfall outlook.

Role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Neutral Conditions at Present

Apart from Pacific Ocean influences, the Indian Ocean also plays a crucial role in shaping monsoon patterns. The IMD reported that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the region.

Positive IOD May Offer Some Relief

Climate models suggest that a positive IOD phase could develop towards the latter part of the monsoon season. A positive IOD is generally associated with warmer western Indian Ocean waters, which can sometimes offset the adverse effects of El Niño and support rainfall over India.

However, the extent of this potential benefit remains uncertain and will depend on how oceanic and atmospheric conditions evolve in the coming months.

Implications for Agriculture and Economy

Impact on Crop Production

A below-normal monsoon can have serious consequences for India’s agriculture sector, which still relies heavily on rainfall. Reduced precipitation may affect the sowing of key crops such as rice, pulses, and oilseeds, particularly in rain-fed regions.

Water Resources and Inflation Concerns

Lower rainfall can also strain water reservoirs, reduce hydroelectric power generation, and push up food prices due to lower crop output. This, in turn, may contribute to inflationary pressures in the broader economy.

Government Preparedness

Given the forecast, policymakers may need to prepare contingency plans, including water management strategies, crop diversification, and support measures for farmers to mitigate potential losses.

IMD Closely Monitoring Ocean Conditions

The IMD emphasised that sea surface temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans have a strong bearing on the monsoon. It stated that these conditions are being closely monitored to refine future forecasts.

As climate variability increases, accurate and timely predictions become crucial for planning across sectors such as agriculture, disaster management, and energy.

Conclusion

The IMD’s forecast of a below-normal monsoon in 2026 underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding India’s climate patterns. With rainfall expected at around 92 per cent of the Long Period Average, the potential development of El Niño conditions poses a significant risk to agricultural output and economic stability. While a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may offer some support later in the season, the overall outlook remains cautious. As the country prepares for the monsoon, proactive planning and adaptive strategies will be essential to minimise the impact of reduced rainfall.