India surpasses Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy with a GDP of $4 trillion, according to NITI Aayog CEO and IMF data. The country is projected to overtake Germany within three years.
India has officially surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, as per the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest data. This milestone was highlighted by NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam during a press briefing after the 10th Governing Council Meeting of NITI Aayog.
“We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak. We are a USD 4 trillion economy, and this is not my data—it’s IMF data. India today is larger than Japan,”
– said NITI Aayog CEO Subrahmanyam.
He further emphasized:
“Only the United States, China, and Germany are currently ahead of us. If we stick to what is being planned and thought through, it’s just a matter of another 2 to 3 years before we become the third-largest economy.”
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, released earlier this month, India is set to become the fourth-largest economy in 2025, with a nominal GDP of $4,187.017 billion, overtaking Japan’s $4,186.431 billion.
India is projected to maintain its status as the fastest-growing major economy, with growth exceeding 6% annually over the next two years. By 2028, India’s GDP is forecast to rise to $5,584.476 billion, positioning it ahead of Germany to become the third-largest economy globally.
Germany’s economic momentum appears sluggish, with zero GDP growth forecast for 2025 and only 0.9% growth in 2026. The nation is expected to be among the most affected in Europe due to the global trade tensions, with its GDP projected to reach $5,251.928 billion by 2028.
Japan is also facing economic stagnation, with IMF estimating a 0.6% growth rate in both 2025 and 2026.
Remaining the largest economy, the United States is forecast to achieve a GDP of $30,507.217 billion in 2025. However, its growth is expected to moderate, dipping to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.
Euro Area: Expected to grow 0.8% in 2025, improving slightly to 1.2% in 2026.
France: Forecast to register 0.6% in 2025 and 1% in 2026.
Spain: Outpaces peers with 2.5% growth in 2025, slowing to 1.8% in 2026.
UK: Projected growth of 1.1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
India’s ascent to the position of the world’s fourth-largest economy marks a monumental achievement in its developmental journey. Backed by robust growth and a strong reform agenda, the Indian economy has leapfrogged Japan with a GDP of over $4 trillion.
As confirmed by NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam and the IMF, the momentum is expected to continue, potentially placing India ahead of Germany within the next three years. While global giants like Germany and Japan face stagnation due to geopolitical and trade challenges, India remains resilient, with growth exceeding 6% projected over the next two years.
This achievement not only reflects India’s expanding economic footprint but also signals its growing influence in shaping global economic policies. As Europe and the U.S. deal with slower recoveries, India’s progress provides optimism for emerging economies worldwide. If the current trajectory persists, India could become a key driver of global economic growth well into the next decade.