India’s energy procurement strategy is undergoing a significant shift as escalating tensions and conflict in the Middle East threaten global oil supply routes. With uncertainty surrounding shipments passing through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, India has increased purchases of discounted crude from Russia to safeguard its domestic energy security.
The country, which is the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, is increasingly diversifying supply sources as delays and risks affect shipments from traditional Gulf suppliers. This move reflects New Delhi’s broader strategy to maintain price stability in domestic fuel markets and protect its energy supply chain amid global geopolitical tensions.
India significantly increased its purchases of Russian crude oil in March as the Middle East conflict disrupted traditional supply routes. According to a report by Press Trust of India, India’s imports of Russian oil rose nearly 50 percent compared with February.
Ship-tracking data shows that India imported approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude in March, up from 1.04 million barrels per day the previous month.
The surge reflects India’s efforts to mitigate the risks associated with supply delays from Gulf producers and ensure sufficient crude availability for its refineries.
The shift in buying patterns has also been influenced by a temporary exemption from the United States, which granted India a 30-day waiver allowing continued purchases of Russian oil despite sanctions.
This move was aimed at stabilising global energy markets and preventing supply shocks that could arise due to disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The waiver offers major energy importers such as India short-term flexibility while the geopolitical situation remains uncertain.
India currently consumes approximately 5.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, making it one of the largest energy consumers globally.
However, the country relies heavily on imports, with nearly 88 percent of its oil demand being sourced from international suppliers.
Historically, a large share of these imports has come from Middle Eastern producers, including:
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
United Arab Emirates
These suppliers typically transport crude via the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vital maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets.
The Strait of Hormuz plays a central role in India’s energy logistics. Under normal circumstances, approximately 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels per day of crude oil destined for India passes through this chokepoint.
The corridor is one of the most important oil transit routes in the world, and any disruption can immediately affect global energy markets.
Market analysts have observed a noticeable shift toward Russian supplies as India attempts to reduce reliance on vulnerable shipping routes.
"India was expected to import around 2.6 million barrels per day of crude via the Strait of Hormuz in March. At the same time, we are seeing a notable pickup in Russian barrels," said Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at Kpler, as quoted by PTI.
"Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports in March could reach 1–1.2 million bpd (over and above the February volumes), which means the effective shortfall from Hormuz exposure narrows to around 1.6 million bpd,"
he added.
While crude oil supplies can be diversified across multiple suppliers, experts warn that liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) may be far more vulnerable to disruptions if tensions in the Gulf region escalate.
India consumes around 1 million barrels per day of LPG, but domestic production satisfies only 40–45 percent of the country’s demand.
This means that approximately 55–60 percent of LPG needs must be met through imports.
A significant portion of India’s LPG imports comes from Middle Eastern countries.
According to analysts, 80–90 percent of India’s LPG imports originate from the Middle East, and most of these shipments travel through the Strait of Hormuz.
India alone consumes roughly 900,000 to 1 million barrels of LPG per day, of which approximately 600,000 barrels are imported.
This heavy reliance on Gulf suppliers makes India’s LPG supply chain particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions in the region.
The evolving situation in the Middle East is already influencing global oil trade flows. As countries seek alternative suppliers to hedge against geopolitical risks, demand for Russian crude has remained strong among Asian buyers.
Since 2022, following Western sanctions on Russia, countries such as India have increasingly taken advantage of discounted Russian oil, helping maintain stable domestic fuel prices while diversifying supply sources.
The latest surge in imports underscores how geopolitical tensions continue to reshape global energy trade patterns.
India’s sharp increase in Russian oil imports highlights the country’s flexible and pragmatic energy strategy amid geopolitical instability. With uncertainty surrounding shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, New Delhi has turned to Russian supplies to maintain energy security and stabilise domestic markets. However, while crude oil supply disruptions can be partially mitigated through diversification, India’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern LPG imports remains a key vulnerability. As the Middle East conflict continues to evolve, India will likely keep diversifying its energy sourcing strategy to safeguard its rapidly growing economy.