The Majority Of Fossil Fuel Reserves Must Remain Underground To Avoid Climate Change

According to the scientists, almost 60% of existing oil and fossil methane gas reserves, as well as 90% of residual coal reserves, must remain underground by 2050 to prevent the worst effects of the climate catastrophe. According to a study, severe fossil fuel extraction limitations are required to have at least a one-in-two probability of reducing global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoiding the worst effects of the climate catastrophe. The researchers believe that a significant increase in Unex tractable fossil fuel reserves is necessary, notably for oil, where an additional 25% of reserves must remain in the ground compared to 2015 projections. The latest analysis follows a 2015 Nature study that predicted that by 2050, a third of oil reserves, half of the gas reserves, and over 80% of coal reserves should be left unused to keep global warming below 2°C. According to a previous study, with 1.5°C warnings, around 14% of the world's population would be exposed to severe heatwaves at least once every five years, while at 2°C warnings, more than a third of the world's population would be susceptible.

The study data warns that the results might be understated since the model does not account for uncertainties such as the rate of deployment and size of technologies needed to reduce emissions, as well as the Earth's geological, chemical, and life cycle behavior. Fossil fuels account for more than 80% of global energy use, and their production and use must drastically decrease. To reach these targets, experts estimate that oil and gas output would have to drop by at least 3% every year until 2050.